This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
Speculation is beginning to swirl about various Republicans considering challenging Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow (D). Last week, rock star and gun rights activist Ted Nugent indicated that he was thinking of entering the race. Reps. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) and Justin Amash (R-Grand Rapids area) have also been mentioned as potential candidates and neither has ruled out running.
Wisconsin Congressman Sean Duffy (R-Wausau) announced that he will not challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) next year, and will likely seek re-election to a fifth term instead. Several other Republicans are considering the race, including Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, and venture capitalist and former Senate candidate Eric Hovde. Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke is also a potential Baldwin challenger, and it is presumed he would enter the Republican primary instead of launching an internal Democratic primary battle.
House
South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill) was confirmed as director of the Office of Management & Budget this week, meaning the special election to replace him is already underway. As mandated by state election law, the special primary will be conducted on May 2nd, with any necessary run-off on May 16th, followed by the special general on June 20th. Already, seven Republicans have announced for the seat, including state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope and state Rep. Ralph Norman. No Democrat has yet declared his or her intention to run.
The last special election to be placed on the calendar is in Montana. At-large Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is expected to be confirmed as US Interior Secretary when Congress re-convenes next week. Once he resigns his congressional position, the parties will meet in convention to choose special election nominees for the state's one House seat.
Earlier, 2014 Republican gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte, who only lost to Gov. Steve Bullock (D) by a 50-46% margin, claims to have enough votes to win the convention. His vote count seemingly was confirmed when state Senate President Scott Sales (R) announced that he will not go through with his own congressional candidacy. Democrats look to be headed toward nominating state Rep. Amanda Curtis, their 2014 nominee for US Senate. If so, Mr. Gianforte will begin the special election contest as a big favorite.
A new poll in the GA-6 special election to replace Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price was just released. Clout Research, formerly known as Wenzel Strategies, polled 694 voters residing in the northern Atlanta suburban district from February 17-18, and found Democrat Jon Ossoff leading the race with just under 32% support. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) was next with 25%.
The poll was flawed in the sense that it only included Ossoff as the lone Democratic choice. Actually, there are five who are running, including Ossoff and former state Sen. Ron Slotin. The poll also listed only five of the eleven Republican candidates.
The 6th is a Republican district, but Democrats believe they have a chance in this special election because President Trump only carried the seat by 1.5 percentage points. The party leadership is lining up behind Ossoff, so it remains to be seen just how well he can do. The jungle primary election is April 18th. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two finishers advance to a run-off on June 20th. It is a virtual certainty that the secondary election will be held.
Governor
An interesting twist may be happening in the upcoming open Alabama Governor's race. Former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville said early in the week that he is considering entering the Republican primary for Governor next year and promises a decision within the next couple of weeks. With incumbent Gov. Robert Bentley (R) ineligible to seek a third term - and, assuming he is not impeached - the statewide contest will be open for the first time in eight years.
The Alabama race is expected to be crowded, with Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (R), state Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh (R), and US Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) all mentioned as serious potential candidates. Gov. Bentley is under investigation for misusing state funds in connection with an extra-marital affair that has already cost him his 50-year marriage. The legislature is considering impeachment proceedings as a result.
If Bentley is removed, then Lt. Gov. Ivey would ascend to the Governorship, thus making her an incumbent seeking election in her own right. The other potential candidates, including Senate President Marsh, certainly don't want to give Ivey a special advantage so much intrigue surrounds this particular election contest. The latter situation could well influence the legislative leaders to slow-track or ditch the Bentley impeachment proceeding.