This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Senior Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
- Primary Results: Maryland
- IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) Ahead only 47-39%
- UT-Sen: Evan McMullin (I) Gaining on Sen. Mike Lee (R)
- NY-10: Ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) Drops Bid
- WY-AL: Challenger Harriet Hageman (R) Poised for Upset
- States: Top Five Primary System Qualifies for NV Vote
Maryland: Though polling was suggesting that several close races would be present on the Maryland primary ballot, it appears none materialized. Approximately one-third of the Democratic ballots and 20% of the GOP’s tallies still remain to be counted, and it will be several days until we see final totals. The margins from the various races, however, are such that they are unlikely to reverse any finishing order.
It appears that author and anti-poverty activist Wes Moore will win the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He has almost a full ten-percentage point lead over his closest rival, former Labor Secretary and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez, with state Comptroller Peter Franchot now a distant third.
Claiming the Democratic nomination makes him a prohibitive general election favorite against Donald Trump backed state Delegate Dan Cox (R-Frederick) who clinched the Republican primary over former state Commerce Department Secretary Kelly Schulz. Assuming a November win, Mr. Moore will become Maryland’s 63rd Governor and first African American to hold the post. He would replace Governor Larry Hogan (R), who is ineligible to run again because of the state’s term-limit law.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen was a landslide Democratic primary winner as expected. He will face Republican activist and homebuilding contractor Chris Chaffee in what should be an easy re-election run for the incumbent. US Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Bowie) also was easily nominated as the Democratic candidate for Attorney General in another race polling projected as trending close. Rep. Brown has so far claimed approximately 60% of the vote against retired district judge Katie Curran O’Malley (D), wife of former Governor and presidential candidate Martin O’Malley.
Tuesday’s competitive US House races saw the open 4th District going to ex-Prince Georges State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey, who surprisingly easily defeated former US Rep. Donna Edwards (D). The ex-House member, who served nine years after winning a special election in 2008, was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2016 US Senate Democratic primary.
In the 6th District, State Delegate and 2020 Republican nominee Neil Parrott defeated journalist Matthew Foldi who attracted support from Gov. Hogan and other key GOP leaders. Mr. Parrott will again challenge Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), but now in a district that is more favorable to a Republican candidate.
Georgia: In the developing seesaw battle between Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican retired professional football player Herschel Walker, a new joint Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) poll for AARP (11/5-11; 1,197 GA likely general election voters with an over-sample of 500 voters aged 50 and older and a 147-person over-sample of black voters; live interview and text) projects the incumbent to be holding a 50-47% edge despite Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of Democrat Stacey Abrams, 52-45%, and Republicans leading on the generic congressional question, 48-45%.
Iowa: Selzer & Company, which scores an A+ rating from the FiveThirtyEight poll ranking apparatus and is widely viewed as Iowa’s most accurate and consistent pollster, went into the field over the July 8-11 period. They interviewed 811 adults, 597 who identified themselves as likely voters. The Senate ballot test broke only 47-39% in Sen. Grassley’s favor over retired Navy Admiral Mike Franken, the Democratic nominee.
Though Sen. Grassley has the advantage beyond the polling margin of error, the race has signs of becoming competitive. The Senator will be 89 years of age at the time of the election, which may be one reason he is trailing 40-30% with voters 35 years of age and younger. He continues perform strongly with men, 56-33%, but falls behind Admiral Franken with women, 44-38%.
Iowa is a Senate race to watch during the rest of the campaign. Contrasting the Grassley numbers, GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds holds a strong 48-31% advantage over Democratic nominee Deirdre DeJear.
Ohio: Though polling finds US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) and author J.D. Vance (R) in a neck-and-neck contest, one area that is anything but close is campaign fundraising. In the second quarter, Rep. Ryan outraised Mr. Vance by a whopping 9:1 ratio, meaning over $9 million raised to just over $1 million for the latter man. Perhaps more seriously, Mr. Vance is reporting only $630,000 cash-on-hand as compared to Rep. Ryan’s $3.6 million. Expect outside sources to become heavily involved in this race with the goal of helping Mr. Vance close the resource gap.
Utah: Dan Jones & Associates, polling for the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah (7/11-13; 801 UT registered voters), projects Sen. Mike Lee (R) with only a 41-36% lead over Independent Evan McMullin. This is the closest general election poll reported in the current election cycle. The Democrats coalesced behind Mr. McMullin instead of fielding a candidate of their own. The move looks to be working since Sen. Lee would be faring better in a three-way race with a Democratic candidate peeling away from Mr. McMullin the most partisan party voters. Sen. Lee is likely in better position that this one poll indicates, but the Utah race is certainly beginning to attract some national attention.
Washington: For the second time in a matter of days, a poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) re-establishing a strong lead in her 2022 re-election effort after earlier surveys were projecting a tight race. Elway Research (7/7-11; 400 WA registered voters; live interview & text) projects Sen. Murray to be holding a 51-33% lead over veterans advocate and former nurse Tiffany Smiley (R). The result is almost identical to the Survey USA poll that was conducted during the same period. The S-USA data found a 53-33% Murray advantage. The confirming Elway result suggests the two pollsters are detecting a positive response to the recent Murray ad blitz.
Florida: The Republican Party of Florida contracted with the Tyson Group research firm to conduct a series of GOP primary polls in the state’s new open congressional districts.
In the Jacksonville area’s new 4th CD, state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean leads college professor Erick Aguilar, 24-14%. Just to the south in the new Volusia County 7th District, businessman and Iraq War veteran Cory Mills and state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R-Howey-in the-Hills) are in a virtual tie with the former leading the latter, 23-21%.
Turning to the St. Petersburg seat of Rep. Charlie Crist (D), who is running for Governor, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna leads attorney Kevin Hayslett and lobbyist and 2020 candidate Amanda Makki, 37-17-10%. The new Hillsborough County 15th CD features a virtual three-way tie among state Sen. Kelli Stargel (R-Lakeland) who has 13% support, with Secretary of State Laurel Lee and state Rep. Jackie Toledo (R-Tampa) each trailing with 10% apiece.
IA-3: The Moore Information Group tested the toss-up rated IA-3 congressional race between two-term Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) and state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant). Not surprisingly, the poll results (7/9-11; 400 IA-3 likely voters; live interview) found the two candidates tied at 43% apiece. In neither of Ms. Axne’s congressional wins did she reach 50%. Therefore, we can expect another very close result come election night.
Nevada: Emerson College ran a series of polls testing 500 registered voters in each of the three Democratic-held Las Vegas congressional districts over the July 7-10 period. While the Dem incumbents lead in all three, none even break the 42% plateau in support.
In the 1st District, Rep. Dina Titus’ (D) advantage over Republican Mark Robertson is only 41-37%. Third District incumbent Susie Lee holds just a 42-40% slight margin over Republican attorney April Becker. In the 4th CD that stretches from North Las Vegas to the state’s middle section, Rep. Steven Horsford’s (D) spread over insurance agency owner Sam Peters (R) is a similar 42-39%. The three seats were drawn as Lean Democratic seats, but it appears all could be in position to swing toward the Republicans in November.
NY-10: The Justice Research Group, polling for state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Nioh (D) and the Working Families Party largely confirms last week’s Data for Progress poll that finds NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera and Ms. Nioh at the top of the Democratic candidate throng competing for the new open Lower Manhattan congressional seat. Each posted a preference figure of 16% in this poll. There is no runoff law in New York, so the eventual nominee will almost assuredly win with just plurality support.
Like the DfP poll, the Justice Research survey finds both US Rep. Mondaire Jones, coming from his Westchester County seat, and ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio falling below the 10% plateau. In this survey, Rep. Jones posts only 8% preference and de Blasio 3 percent. The pollsters, conducted the survey from July 1-11, and interviewed 636 NY-10 likely Democratic primary voters through live conversations and texts. Largely, as a result of the two polls, Mr. de Blasio ended his congressional effort. In a video message thanking people for their help and support, the former Mayor indicated that since it is clear the people of the new 10th District prefer a different direction, it is time that he found a different way to serve. Therefore, Mr. de Blasio says he will exit elective politics.
NY-23: While the Republican Party establishment is clearly behind NY GOP state chairman Nick Langworthy to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning) in the new 23rd CD, a new poll suggests the likely Republican primary voters feel otherwise. The WPA Intelligence survey (7/9-11; 604 NY-23 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) sees former Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Padalino posting a whopping 54-24% lead over Mr. Langworthy.
This poll tested voters for the regular election. Neither Messrs. Padalino or Langworthy are competing in the special election to fill the balance of the term, also to be held on primary day, August 23rd. The Republican nominee in that race is political caretaker candidate Joe Sempolinski, the Steuben County Republican Party chairman.
WY-AL: The Caspar Star Tribune newspaper sponsored a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy study (7/7-11; 1,100 WY registered voters) that finds GOP attorney and congressional challenger Harriet Hageman, who former President Donald Trump endorses, posting a 52-30% lead over controversial incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson) in anticipation of the August 16th Republican primary, now less than a month away. This is the third consecutive released survey projecting Ms. Hageman holding a lead well into double digits. While Ms. Cheney has a huge lead in campaign resources and is making overt requests of Democratic voters to participate in the Republican primary, it is doubtful there is enough she can do to ultimately prevail.
Ohio: Continuing the fight between the Ohio Supreme Court and the Buckeye State legislature, the high court again struck down the enacted congressional map as a partisan gerrymander, once more on a 4-3 ruling, and mandated that the plan be re-drawn for the 2024 election. It is likely that the US Supreme Court will issue a ruling on partisan gerrymandering at some point next year, which may make the Ohio decision moot. This ruling does not affect the 2022 election cycle, which will be run under the plan that the court just struck down.
Missouri: The grassroots organization attempting to convert the Missouri primary system into a Top-Four jungle primary format a la Alaska, has failed to qualify for the November initiative ballot. Though the group recruited more than 300,000 signatures, they did not reach the mandated number of verified petition signatures in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. The organizers vowed to mount a similar effort for the 2024 election.
The Top-Four system, used only in Alaska and for the first time in the 2022 election cycle, features a jungle primary that includes all candidates on the same ballot. The top four contenders then advance to the general election regardless of party preference and vote percentage attained. Once the four general election finalists are determined, the system converts to Ranked Choice Voting System, where voters prioritize their candidate choices from 1-4. Contenders are eliminated once one reaches the 50% mark.