This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-El Paso) announced at the end of last week that he will challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) next year. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen was re-elected in 1988, and no party member has won a statewide race here since 1990. President Trump carried Texas by nine percentage points last November. Another obstacle in O'Rourke's way is that no one has ever won a Texas statewide office hailing from El Paso. So, his challenge is a daunting one.
Still, the Congressman is a credible candidate who will be able to assemble a serious campaign. Sen. Cruz will have some vulnerability because he spent most of his first term running for President and not expending his energy to fully represent the state. Nevertheless, Sen. Cruz must be rated a clear favorite as this campaign begins.
U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another individual reported to be considering entering the Senate race. In response to the expected O'Rourke announcement, Mr. Castro says he is still not ruling out running and will decide in several weeks. In the end, it is likely that O'Rourke becomes the consensus Democratic candidate and Castro remains in the House.
House
On Tuesday, voters in Los Angeles went to the polls to decide the CA-34 special election to replace Rep. Xavier Becerra (D), who resigned from Congress to become California's Attorney General. Turnout wasextremely low, not even reaching 10% of the registered voters.
Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and former Los Angeles Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn will now advance to a double-Democratic special general election on June 6th. Mr. Gomez is the Democratic establishment candidate while Mr. Ahn recently dropped over $300,000 of his own money into the race, bringing his receipts total to more than $630,000. This is more than any candidate, including race favorite Gomez, and $100,000 more than the third-best fundraiser, former city council aide Sara Hernandez (D), who finished fourth.
More polling is coming to the forefront in the suburban Atlanta special election (GA-6). Both Lake Research and Survey USA released polls finding Democrat Jon Ossoff leading the pack of candidates with approximately 40% preference. Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel is a distant second in all surveys, but there is disagreement among the pollsters about Handel's Republican opponents' strength. Contrasting Lake's findings, S-USA poll projects that the Republicans are closely bunched.
In any event, Ossoff is well positioned to finish first in the jungle primary, but falls well short of securing an outright majority. Run-off polling scenarios show a virtual tie between Mr. Ossoff and whichever Republican advances to the secondary electoral contest.
The Montana special election is beginning to take shape and it appears more competitive that originally first thought. Democratic nominee Rob Quist, a country rock singer who is well known throughout the state, has already gathered more than $750,000 for the special election, released his first television spot, and is prepared to run a viable campaign. Republican nominee Greg Gianforte has the ability to self-fund and is already airing two different ads, so he will be able to spend freely on the special election campaign just as he did for his close losing Governor's campaign last November. Therefore, we can expect a more spirited campaign here prior to the May 25th election than originally first thought.
Governor
Two-term Massachusetts U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) closed the door on a potential challenge to Republican Gov. Charlie Baker. In a rare tip of the political hat to bi-partisanship, Moulton referred to Gov. Baker as "a good man" who is "doing a pretty good job leading the state."
New Jersey candidate filing closed, and all candidates expecting to file did so. The prohibitive Democratic and Republican favorites to capture the respective party nominations are former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy (D) and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R), respectively. Comedian Joe Piscopo, who for a time was looking to run for Governor as a Republican, still can file as an Independent candidate. Early last week, he announced that he would not enter the Republican primary.
Former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders endorsed former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) for the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam opposes him. Conversely, in a blow to upstart Perriello, the liberal Virginia Education Association endorsed the more establishment-oriented Northam, in addition to Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), and Sens. Mark Warner (D) and Tim Kaine (D). Still, this is not a typical Clinton vs. Sanders intra-party affair. Clinton former campaign chairman John Podesta is on board with Perriello as is former President Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe.