This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
The election cycle's third public poll of Florida's 2018 US Senate race reached the public domain this week and Cherry Communications (CC), polling for the state Chamber of Commerce (3/6-14; 600 FL registered voters), already finds consistent results with the previously conducted surveys. According to the CC study, the polling respondents would favor Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Gov. Rick Scott (R) by a 48-42% margin. The other polls, from the University of North Florida and Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, found 44-38 and 46-41% spreads, respectively.
Sen. Nelson says he will seek a fourth term next year. Gov. Scott, ineligible to run for a third term, has openly speculated about challenging the incumbent Democratic Senator. These consistent polling results suggest yet another close Sunshine State political campaign.
House
Clout Research is out with their second, and much improved, survey of the GA-6 special election campaign. This poll (3/15-16; 625 GA-6 respondents; 589 likely special election voters) finds Democratic investigative filmmaker and ex-congressional aide Jon Ossoff opening up a lead over the large field of candidates. According to the data, Mr. Ossoff commands 41% support, followed by former Secretary of State Karen Handel and businessman Bob Gray who are tied at 16%.
The poll is better than the organization's first effort because the survey masters included more than one Democratic option response. There are five Democrats on the ballot, but Clout only listed Ossoff in their first poll. This time they added former state Sen. Ron Slotin. Six Republicans were listed, of the eleven who will be on the ballot. Combined, the aggregate GOP total is still higher than the similar Democratic tally, 48-44%. The jungle primary vote is April 18th. If no candidate commands an absolute majority, which is almost a certainty, the top two will advance to a June 20th special general election vote.
Illinois Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs/Chicago suburbs) first elected in 2004 to succeed his father, Rep. Bill Lipinski who served 22 years in the House, could face a Democratic primary challenge in 2018. Marketing consultant Marie Newman has filed a congressional exploratory committee to test whether she could amass enough liberal support to deny re-nomination to one of the more moderate Democratic members of the House. Mr. Lipinski last faced primary opposition in 2008, a race he won by almost 20 percentage points.
Brian McClendon, who recently resigned as a top Vice President in the Uber corporation, says he will be returning to Kansas and may well launch a political venture. He intimates soon announcing a congressional candidacy for the open 2nd District. Incumbent Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka) has already announced that she will retire after the current term.
Former Nevada US Senate and congressional candidate Sharron Angle (R), who lost a close race to Sen. Harry Reid (D) in 2010 while carrying the Tea Party banner, is now challenging four-term Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City). Ms. Angle announced the intra-party challenge earlier in the week. A former state Representative, she continues to lose support in every subsequent race. Though a well-known candidate, Ms. Angle will not likely prove a credible primary challenger to Rep. Amodei. The Congressman will be heavily favored for re-nomination.
Governor
Florida ex-US Representative Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) will reportedly soon announce for Governor. First elected in 2014, Ms. Graham became a victim of the 2015 court-ordered redistricting and was left with nowhere to run in 2016. She will return after a brief hiatus from active politics, due to her husband's battle against prostate cancer. With his recovery well underway, it is possible we will see an announcement from her within the next week. Ms. Graham is the daughter of former Governor and US Senator Bob Graham, and will join Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and businessman Chris King in the Democratic gubernatorial field. Gov. Rick Scott (R) is term-limited, so the open Florida Governor's race will become one of the most important national campaigns in 2018.
It is becoming clear in Minnesota that six-term US Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) will announce his candidacy for the open Governor's race in short order. Mr. Walz was barely re-elected to the House in November, scoring only a 50.3% victory percentage. Still, he will be a formidable statewide Democratic primary candidate. If successful in obtaining the nomination, he would become the favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Mark Dayton (D).
A new Quinnipiac University New Jersey survey (3/9-13; 1,098 NJ registered voters) finds Democratic former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy opening up a substantial lead over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) in this year's open gubernatorial contest. Mr. Murphy scores a 47-25% margin when paired against the state's sitting Lt. Governor. Ms. Guadagno is likely falling victim to Gov. Chris Christie's (R) abysmal job approval ratings. According to this Q-Poll, his job performance stands at 19:76% favorable to unfavorable. In the Republican primary poll (315 tested Republicans), Guadagno leads comedian Joe Piscopo, 28-18%. For the Democrats (450 sampled Democrats), Mr. Murphy begins in a commanding position with 23% in comparison to his four opponents, none of whom can even top 6 percent.
Four-term Ohio US Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) became part of the growing open gubernatorial candidate field this week. The Congressman joins Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine as official contenders. Secretary of State Jon Husted is expected to soon follow. For the Democrats, ex-Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley), who lost to Mr. Renacci in 2012, state Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, and ex-state Rep. and Ohio Treasurer nominee Connie Pillich are announced candidates. Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.