This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
Freshman Indiana Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City/Ft. Wayne) firmly closed the door on making a Senate run next year. There was never any particular sign that Mr. Banks would so quickly enter a statewide campaign after just being elected to Congress this past November, but his statement this week will end any further speculation.
Conversely, Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie), while still not declaring for the Senate, took a major step forward. He formed a statewide finance committee that is certainly designed to support an impending Hoosier State US Senate campaign. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Democratic Senators standing for re-election in 2018.
The Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) saga continues. While saying two weeks ago that he is strongly considering running for an eighth term - Mr. Hatch is already the second longest-serving Senate Republican in American history - the veteran lawmaker said this week that he would step aside if he could be assured that "a really outstanding person would run for my position." Mr. Hatch made his comments in a new interview with the Salt Lake City Tribune. Such a person, Mr. Hatch continued, would be former presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The latter, a former Massachusetts Governor, is now a resident of Utah. This Senate race continues to develop.
House
With the CA-34 special election in downtown Los Angeles nearing its jungle primary date on April 4th, a new figure has burst on the scene. Rising to the top of the resource chart among the 23 contenders to succeed Rep. Xavier Becerra (D), who resigned from the House to become California's Attorney General, is Los Angeles Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn (D). Mr. Ahn recently dropped over $300,000 of his own money into the race, bringing his receipts total to more than $330,000. This is more than any candidate, including race favorite Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez (D), and $100,000 more than the third-best fundraiser, former city council aide Sara Hernandez (D).
If no candidate garners majority support in next week's election, the top two will advance to a special general election on June 6th. It is likely that two Democrats will battle each other for the seat in the secondary contest.
Following the April 4th vote, special election voters in southern Kansas will go to the polls on April 11th. They will choose a successor to Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Wichita), who resigned to become CIA Director. The candidates are state Treasurer Ron Estes (R) and attorney James Thompson (D). Mr. Estes is the favorite. This will be the first of the five special congressional elections to complete its campaign cycle.
Governor
Former Colorado US Senator and Obama Administration Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D) said he will not enter the open 2018 Governor's race in the Centennial State. This likely opens the door for Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) to make the statewide bid. Though Mr. Perlmutter is not yet confirming he will run for Governor, individuals close to him indicate that they are confident he will do so. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Colorado race should be one of the more competitive open gubernatorial campaigns in the nation. Republicans, to date, do not have a clear field of candidates.
Minnesota six-term US Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato) announced his candidacy for the open Governor's race earlier in the week, as expected. Mr. Walz was barely re-elected to the House in November, scoring only a 50.3% victory percentage. Still, he will be a formidable statewide Democratic primary candidate. If successful in obtaining the nomination, he would become at least an early favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Mark Dayton (D).
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (3/22-26; 758 NJ registered voters) finds former Ambassador Phil Murphy and New Jersey Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno on the road to capturing their respective Democratic and Republican Party gubernatorial nominations. Both enjoy leads of 20 points against opponents within their own party structure. Mr. Murphy will be favored in the 2017 general election to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Chris Christie.
Christopher Newport University (3/16-26; 831 VA registered voters) again tested the Virginia gubernatorial primary situation. While former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie owns a comfortable 38-11-10% advantage over local county Supervisor Corey Stewart and state Sen. Frank Wagner, respectively among sampled likely GOP primary voters, the Democratic primary is a much different story.
According to the CNU data, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) are deadlocked in a 26-26% contest that looks to be dividing along the same ideological lines upon which Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders decided the 2016 presidential nomination. As the candidates become better known, we can expect this division to deepen. The Democratic establishment is lining up behind Northam, while the liberal Sanders' outsiders are backing Perriello.