This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
- AZ-Sen: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Leads Opponents, But Well Below 50%
- IA-Sen: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) to Seek Re-Election
- Redistricting: CO; ME; NE; OR; WV
- KS-Gov: New Polling Finds Close General Election Race
- NY-Gov: Democratic Primary Forming Against Gov. Kathy Hochul
- Los Angeles: US Rep. Karen Bass (D) Announces for Mayor
Arizona: OH Predictive Insights ran a series of ballot tests for the 2022 US Senate race and tested incumbent Mark Kelly (D) against all current potential Republican opponents. The survey (9/7-12; 882 AZ registered voters; online opt-in panel) finds Sen. Kelly, who won the 2020 special election to fill the unexpired portion of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R) final term with a 51-49% margin, only posting 43 or 44% against any of the announced Republican candidates.
The GOP opponent coming closest is state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who trails 43-39%. The Senator performs best against venture capitalist Blake Masters, leading 44-35%. Also tested were former Arizona National Guard Adjutant General Mick McGuire and businessman Jim Lamon. They both finish within seven points of Sen. Kelly.
Iowa: Iowa’s longest serving US Senator, Chuck Grassley (R), announced that he will seek re-election to an eighth Senatorial term, unprecedented for any Iowan. Mr. Grassley was first elected to the Senate on the same night that Ronald Reagan won the Presidency back in 1980. He has been in office consecutively since 1959, including his time in the state legislature and US House. Sen. Grassley, who will turn 89 years of age before the next election, said he has “a lot more to do for Iowa,” and is therefore seeking re-election.
Nevada: WPA Intelligence released a new survey of the Nevada Senate race featuring first-term incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R). According to the WPAi survey (9/11-15; 504 NV likely voters; live interview), the GOP challenger, Mr. Laxalt, holds a slight 39-37% edge over Sen. Cortez Masto. The poll features an unusually high undecided/refused to say response of 24% considering both individuals have long political histories in the state.
Ohio: Former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel continues to maintain a large lead in the open US Senate Republican primary according to a new statewide survey. WPA Intelligence went into the field during the September 20-23 period, interviewing 510 likely Republican primary voters. The results find Mr. Mandel holding a 37-13% lead over author J.D. Vance. All other contenders, including former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, fall well below the 10% double-digit mark.
Colorado: The congressional Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission approved a new 8-district map on an 11-1 vote, adhering to the September 28th initiative mandated deadline. The map, that appears to be a 4D-3R-1Swing partisan division, now goes to the Colorado state Supreme Court for legal approval. The high court has until December 15th to provide confirmation for the new map. The new 8th District lies to the north and northeast of Denver and becomes only a 1.3% Democratic district meaning that the new CD is in play for both parties.
Maine: Maine’s redistricting commission, which consists of ten state legislators and five appointed members, reached an agreement on a new congressional map. The main change is moving the capital region of Augusta from liberal District 1 (Rep. Chellie Pingree-D) to more conservative District 2 (Rep. Jared Golden-D). The 2nd District becomes slightly more Democratic, but former President Trump would still have carried the seat. Both houses of the Maine legislature must pass redistricting maps with 2/3 vote, so this process is far from complete.
Nebraska: Nebraska’s three congressional districts have been re-drawn, passed through the unicameral legislature, and Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) signed the completed map into law. The new plan is similar to the previous draw. Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Papillon/Omaha) 2nd District becomes slightly more Republican, keeps the Omaha metro area whole, and remains a competitive seat. Rep. Adrian Smith’s (R-Gering) 3rd District again stretches the width of the state, from Colorado and Wyoming all the way to Iowa and the northwestern corner of Missouri. This time the 3rd even goes so far as to border Omaha’s Douglas County.
It is likely that Nebraska will continue to send three Republicans to the US House, though Democrats will return to target Rep. Bacon in District 2.
OH-11: Former Ohio state Senator and ex-national co-chair for the Bernie Sanders for President campaign, Nina Turner, lost the Democratic special congressional election primary to Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown on September 14th after the former woman began the campaign as a big favorite.
Though the special general hasn’t yet occurred (November 2nd), Ms. Turner this week filed a 2022 congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. The former state legislator said the action doesn’t mean she will run in 2022, but does give her the option of quickly launching a campaign. The Cleveland anchored seat will remain in Democratic hands regardless of who wins the next party primary.
Oregon: Oregon became the first state to complete 2020 census redistricting this week. The new congressional map creates two Portland area safe Democratic seats, for Reps. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Washington County) and Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland), and one safe Republican district for freshman Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ontario). The remaining three districts all lean the Democrats’ way, but none can be considered safe. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee chairman Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield), after only scoring 51.5% in the 2020 election, sees his district improve by about five percentage points.
On the other hand, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) finds his 5th District splitting in half, with most of his territory forming the heart of the new 6th District. The 5th, which will now stretch to the Bend community from the Salem metro area, becomes a competitive seat, only slightly leaning toward Rep. Schrader. The new 6th CD is more Democratic but could also be competitive with a viable Republican candidate in a good GOP year.
OR-6: Just after the Oregon legislature and Governor enacted the state’s new six-district congressional map, Dundee Mayor David Russ (R), who had announced against Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Washington County) in the safely Democratic 1st District, said yesterday he will switch into the new more competitive and neighboring 6th District. Like Colorado, Oregon was awarded a new district in reapportionment.
West Virginia: The first proposed West Virginia redistricting map is public. The state is losing one of its three districts, which will likely force Rep. Alex Mooney’s (R-Charles Town) mid-state 2nd District into collapse. Since parts of his seat are in each of the new districts, Rep. Mooney would have his choice of running in a Republican primary against either Reps. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) or Carol Miller (R-Huntington) if this were ultimately the adopted plan.