Election Insights - Clinton Wins DC Dem Primary, Upsets in Virginia and North Dakota, and More Election Analysis

June 15, 2016

This article originated on BIPAC.org. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis

President

The presidential political primary season ended with the District of Columbia Democratic primary where presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton captured 79% of the vote and has, for all intents and purposes, finally ended Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) campaign hopes. She now has enough in the way of pledged votes and Super Delegates to unquestionably exceed the 2,383 votes necessary to win the presidential nomination.

Three new general election polls were just released from Morning Consult, NBC/Survey Monkey, and Bloomberg Politics. All show Ms. Clinton building a substantial lead, mostly detecting fallout over Donald Trump's disparaging comments about the judge hearing his Trump University lawsuit. The three polls project Clinton to national leads of five, seven, and twelve points, respectively. The final poll in the series, from Bloomberg, may be an anomaly because no other publicly released data find such a large spread between the two candidates.

Now both candidates prepare for their respective political conventions and becoming the official party nominee.  Republicans begin the convention process in Cleveland over the July 18-21 period with Democrats following from Philadelphia in the succeeding week.

Senate

The Nevada primary produced two official US Senate nominees, and the result is no surprise. Democrats nominated former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto who captured 81% against four minor Democratic candidates. Republican Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) easily captured his party's nomination with 65% against former Senate nominee Sharron Angle and eight more GOP candidates. We can expect a hard fought general election campaign to emerge here, in a state that may well determine which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is retiring.

A new early June Public Policy Polling survey finds Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) holding a small 41-38% lead over Democratic nominee Katie McGinty. This race expects to be close all the way to Election Day and will become one of the focal points of both the Democrats and Republicans driving for capture the Senate majority. The same poll also finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump virtually tied at 44%, giving further credence to the closeness of the Senate race.

House

A major upset occurred in the Virginia House primaries. Eight-term Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake) lost his bid for re-nomination in the 2nd District after the mid-decade court-ordered redistricting procedure turned his 4th District into a decidedly Democratic district. Trying to extend his congressional career, Forbes hopped into the adjacent open Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District but could not overcome local Delegate Scott Taylor (R) who posted a 53-41% victory in a domain where the veteran Congressman had not previously represented anyone.

Mr. Forbes becomes the second incumbent to lose in the special redistricting states, after courts demanded new congressional boundaries be constructed in parts of Virginia and North Carolina. Last week, Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) lost her primary battle to fellow Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) in the latter state.

In Nevada, open 3rd District voters gave former congressional and statewide nominee Danny Tarkanian an eight point win over party establishment favorite Michael Roberson, the state Senate Majority Leader. Democrats turned to their recruited candidate, software developer Jacky Rosen who recorded a landslide 61% victory over five Democratic candidates. The field included attorney Jesse Sbaih, who doubled Rosen's campaign expenditures. The 3rd District is the marginal seat Rep. Joe Heck is vacating to run statewide. The general election will be rated as a toss-up, though Tarkanian's poor past general election performances may give Rosen and the Democrats the inside track to victory.

In the 4th District, establishment-backed state Senator Ruben Kihuen won the Democratic nomination over seven other candidates, one of which, former state Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, he trailed substantially in polling. Kihuen will now face freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) in a district that will be prone to vote Democratic in a presidential election year. This is a strong Democratic conversion opportunity.

In South Carolina, Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) won his re-nomination race but scored only a 56-44% victory over state Rep. Jenny Horne. The Congressman will have little trouble winning another term in the safe Republican House seat, however.

Governor

The second major June 14th primary upset came in the North Dakota Governor's race. There, businessman Doug Burgum easily overcame the official Republican-endorsed candidate, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem. Normally, North Dakota candidates do not force a primary after losing the state convention, but Burgum pursued a statewide vote and reaped the benefits. Mr. Burgum now becomes a heavy general election favorite against state Rep. Marvin Nelson (D).