BIPAC Election Insights - Trump Speech, New DNC Chair, and Early 2018 Election Updates

March 1, 2017

This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

National

President Trump made his first Address to Congress, which will subsequently be called the State of the Union Address. The strong speech was highlighted by honoring of slain Navy SEAL Ryan Owens and his wife Carryn's emotional tribute to him from the audience. Despite almost the entire congressional audience standing and applauding, controversy is arising in that newly appointed Democratic National Committee Vice Chairman Keith Ellison (D-MN) and former chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) refused to stand or applaud during the entire two minute ovation.

Last Saturday, former Obama Administration Labor Secretary Tom Perez was elected Democratic National Committee chairman, and then appointed his chief opponent for the position, Rep. Ellison, to the Vice Chairmanship. Mr. Perez succeeds Acting Chair Donna Brazile, who replaced Wasserman Schultz when the latter was forced to resign in controversy at the Democratic National Convention last July.

Senate

Rumors are consistently continuing that Sen. Bob Corker (R) may eschew running for re-election and instead hop into the 2018 open contest for Governor. Should that happen, a free-for-all could result for the open Senate seat. All eyes would be on term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam (R), who would quickly become a prohibitive favorite if he were to enter the race. If not, expect central Tennessee four-term Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) to make a move, likely for whichever of the statewide offices is open.

A recently released Magellan Strategies Wisconsin Senate poll (2/9-16; 500 WI registered voters) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) holding a 49-35% lead over Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke. The poll tests Sheriff Clarke as a Republican, but he is still a registered Democrat. Several other Republicans are considering the race, including Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, and venture capitalist and former Senate candidate Eric Hovde were not tested. Sheriff Clarke has not yet committed to challenging Ms. Baldwin. The Wisconsin race figures to rank highly on the Republican national conversion target list.

House

Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park) had been rumored as a potential gubernatorial candidate especially after Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka), who had been considered one of the leading potential statewide candidates, surprisingly announced that she will be retiring from politics to return to the private sector. Rep. Yoder, this week, told local reporters, however, that his plan is to seek re-election to the House in 2018.

Stewart Mills, a northern Minnesota Republican businessman who has lost two consecutive congressional races to Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth) by margins of 1.4% (2014) and one-half percent (2016), says he is considering running for a third consecutive time and will soon make a decision. A lot may center on Rep. Nolan's plans. He confirms that he is considering launching a campaign for the open Governor's position.

Governor

Middletown Mayor Dan Drew (D) this week filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee in anticipation of a 2018 statewide run. Incumbent Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy (D) could run for a third term, but his approval ratings are dismal. Mayor Drew says Connecticut's onerous campaign finance requirements are forcing an early entry into the race, though he is not saying that he will challenge the Governor should Mr. Malloy decide to run for re-election.

Ohio Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R), as expected, announced that she will seek the open Governor's position. Incumbent Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to run for a third term. Additionally, Democratic US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown) declared that he will not enter the open statewide contest. In the last several cycles, Rep. Ryan has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Governor, US Senator, and Lt. Governor, but each time backs away from actually entering the statewide campaign.

Already in the Republican race is Ohio Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine. Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) is also projected to enter the race. Several Democrats, including former Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland), ex-Attorney General and current US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, are all reported to be testing the waters for their own gubernatorial runs.

Illinois US Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline) has decided not to enter the 2018 gubernatorial contest against incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner, and instead will seek re-election to the House. Businessman Chris Kennedy, son of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, is in the Democratic primary and must be considered the early front-runner for the party nomination.

Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean became the first Democrat to declare for what will be an open Tennessee Governor's race next year. Republicans will be heavily favored to succeed term-limited incumbent Bill Haslam (R).

Quinnipiac University released their new Virginia poll (2/10-15; 989 VA registered voters; 462 VA likely Democratic primary voters), which provides the Democrats some good news. Both Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) lead presumed GOP front-runner Ed Gillespie, the former Republican National Committee chairman. Perriello actually performs better, leading Mr. Gillespie, 43-36%. Northam claims a 41-35% edge. In a bit of a surprise, the Democratic primary ballot test finds the two candidates tied at 19% apiece.

Lt. Gov. Northam is the party establishment favorite, but Perriello, a late entry into the contest, is drawing heavily from the party's liberal base. Virginia is one of two states, New Jersey being the other, that will host gubernatorial campaigns later this year.