BIPAC Election Insights - GA 6th Features Kathy Griffin and OKC Mayor Looks to Governor in 2018

June 8, 2017

This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Senate

West Virginia Congressman David McKinley (R-Wheeling), who had been considering a US Senate bid, announced that he will seek re-election to his northern Mountain State US House seat. Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) is already in the Senate race and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is expected to soon follow. The eventual primary winner then faces Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who will be favored to win re-election.

House

2016 California Democratic congressional nominee Emilio Huerta, who under-performed against three-term Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Bakersfield) in losing 43-57% when Hillary Clinton was carrying the Central CA district by 16 percentage points, announced he will run again in 2018. Though this is tough political territory for Republicans, Rep. Valadao has won three consecutive elections in the high 50s and will again be favored.

State Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez scored a 60-40% win in the California special election from the downtown Los Angeles anchored 34th District. Mr. Gomez, who defeated former LA City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn (D), enjoyed the backing of virtually the entire California Democratic establishment. Voter turnout was just under 33,000 individuals for the June 6th special general election. Two more House special elections will be held later in the month. Voters in central South Carolina and north Georgia will go to the polls on June 20th to fill their respective vacancies.

The Kathy Griffin/President Trump issue is taking center stage in that Atlanta suburban GA-6 special congressional election. The Congressional Leadership Fund is running an effective ad tying Griffin to Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff via a previous Twitter endorsement. The ad also ties Ossoff's massive funding to "extreme liberals, 95% of whom live outside of Georgia." Landmark Communications, for WSB-TV in Atlanta, ran a new poll (5/30-31; 500 GA-6 likely voters) that finds Ossoff leading Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 48-47%. The poll, however, carries an error factor greater than four percentage points, so the race remains an effective tie with two weeks remaining in the special general election. Early voting for the contest has already begun and more than 24,000 people visited the polling centers in the first three sanctioned days.

Speculation was tamped down this week that Minnesota businessman Stewart Mills (R), who twice came close to unseating Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Crosby/Duluth), would enter the open 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Mr. Mills stated that he is not running statewide, but still is considering a third challenge to Mr. Nolan. The Congressman, himself, was considering a gubernatorial bid, but also announced that he will by-pass the statewide campaign in order to seek re-election to a seventh non-consecutive term. Rep. Nolan served three terms from 1975-81, and then returned to the House in the 2012 election after a 32-year break in service.

Governor

Though new Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has only been in office two weeks since succeeding former Governor and new US Ambassador to China Terry Branstad (R), she has already drawn seven Democratic challengers with a Republican primary contest now looming on the political horizon. Former state Democratic Party chairman John Norris declared his gubernatorial candidacy in the past week, and Republican Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett says he will announce his own candidacy later in June.

Former NAACP president Ben Jealous (D) entered the Maryland Governor's race, and will fight to challenge Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the general election, should he advance that far. Several Democrats are already in the race, and US Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac) is expected to also become a candidate. Gov. Hogan should be favored for re-election, but the Maryland voting history and political climate yields a difficult victory path for any Republican.

New Jersey held the first regular primary of the 2017-18 election cycle on 6/6, featuring nomination victories for Republican Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno and Democratic former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy. The two easily advanced to the November 7th general election where Mr. Murphy will be favored to convert the office Gov. Chris Christie has held for the Republicans during the past two terms.

Oklahoma City four-term Mayor Mick Cornett will officially join the Republican gubernatorial field next week, attempting to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Mary Fallin. Ironically, Cornett lost a congressional run-off election to Ms. Fallin back in 2006. In the 2018 primary, he faces Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, state Auditor Gary Jones, and US Attorney Gary Richardson. Democrats are contesting the race and have three candidates: former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, state House Minority Leader Scott Inman, and ex-state Sen. Connie Johnson. The eventual Republican nominee will begin the general election campaign as an early favorite.