Clinton Numbers post-FBI Decision, Evan Bayh's Indiana Return, and Poll Data on FL, NV, NY, OR, & TX Races

July 13, 2016

This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

President

Some of the new post-FBI decision polling is making its way into the public domain, and the data yields predictable results.

Gone are the Hillary Clinton leads of last week that suggested the former Secretary of State was moving into low double-digit leads over Donald Trump.

This week, two national pollsters: Morning Consult, which continually polls the presidential race in a tracking format, and NBC/Survey Monkey that does likewise, released their presidential conclusions.

The Morning Consult data, determined over the July 8-10 period, finds Ms. Clinton's national lead dropping to a single point, 42-41%. NBC/Survey Monkey, which began the sampling period on July 4th (also ending 7/10), projects the presumptive Democratic candidate's advantage dropping to 47-44%. Morning Consult interviewed 2,001 people via Internet, while Survey Monkey's online poll tabulated responses from just under 8,000 individuals.

Had Libertarian Gary Johnson been included, the results would likely have been a virtual tie, or shown Mr. Trump forging into a slight lead. The race tightens in Trump's favor every time Johnson is included.

Two states reported new data. Harper Polling finds Ms. Clinton up 45-38% in important Colorado, with 14% going to "other" candidates. New Monmouth University research finds Donald Trump taking the lead in swing Iowa, with a 44-42% margin over Ms. Clinton with Mr. Johnson polling 6%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein attracting only 1 percent.

Senate

The week's surprise finds former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) returning to the political arena. Announcing just days before the state's July 15thballot finalization deadline and 24 hours after former Rep. Baron Hill (D-Bloomington) withdrew from the statewide contest clearly indicates an orchestrated Democratic Party agreement. Mr. Hill had won the Democratic primary on May 3rd but was performing poorly on the fundraising and campaign circuits against Republican Rep. Todd Young (R-Bloomington).

Mr. Bayh possessed over $9 million in his campaign account when he left office in 2010, which can be used in this current race.  The largess will give the former Senator and Governor a financial edge, but he hasn't been on the ballot since 2004 and not participated in a competitive campaign in almost 30 years. Mr. Bayh was elected Governor in 1988, and re-elected in 1992.  Despite the Indiana Senate seat being open in 1998, Bayh won with little opposition then and was easily re-elected six years later. He retired in 2010.

The move puts Indiana into a competitive category, instead of being a sure Republican hold. Sen. Dan Coats (R) is retiring, thus leaving the seat open.

Two key Senate polls were released early in the week. JMC Analytics released a survey of Florida voters, and though skewed several points in the Republicans' favor it reports good news for Sen. Marco Rubio (R). The ballot test finds him leading Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter), 40-33%. He maintains a similar 41-33% margin if Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) were to become his Democratic challenger. The Florida primary is August 30th.

In Nevada, Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) continues to maintain a small lead over Democratic former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the battle to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D). The Monmouth University poll finds Heck leading Masto 42-40%, even when the same data portends a 45-41% Hillary Clinton edge in the presidential contest.

House

Polls were released in two districts where Republican incumbents are highly vulnerable. Harper Polling finds Nevada freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-NV-4) holding a bare 38-36% edge over state Sen. Ruben Kihuen (D). The 4th District is heavily Democratic and Hardy was an upset winner in 2014.

In the Texas swing district that stretches all the way from San Antonio to El Paso, freshman Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX-23) finds himself trailing former Rep. Pete Gallego (D), according to a new Anzalone Liszt Grove Research poll for the latter's campaign. The internal data gives Gallego a 45-38% advantage.

The New York congressional race that produced a 29-vote spread on Election Night is now officially declared. Local town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst (D) actually increased her lead once absentee ballots were recorded, and won a 273-vote victory over businessman Dave Calone. The new nominee wins the right to challenge freshman Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/Smithtown) in Long Island's easternmost district.

Governor

A new Oregon iCitizen poll finds interim Gov. Kate Brown (D) holding a smaller-than-expected lead over former Oregon Medical Association president Bud Pierce (R).  The data finds Ms. Brown up 42-35%, suggesting a potentially competitive race.  Ms. Brown, who ascended to the Governorship from the Secretary of State position when incumbent John Kitzhaber (D) resigned under pressure, must run in a special election to serve the balance of the current term.