Who will replace Sessions and Virginia Governor's Race Heats Up

February 8, 2017

This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Senate

Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) is narrowing the field of prospective US Senate appointments to replace incumbent Jeff Sessions (R). It appears that Mr. Sessions will be confirmed as Attorney General, possibly as early tonight, meaning he will resign the Senate seat immediately before being sworn into his new position.

The two leading prospects for the interim appointment appear to be Attorney General Luther Strange (R) and ten-term US Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville). Four others, including two state legislators, are on the Governor's final announced list of six individuals.

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney said he isn't "closing any doors" in relation to possibly seeking the Utah Senate seat in 2018. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) stated when running for a seventh term in 2012 that he would not again seek re-election. His latest comments, however, suggest he is at least considering changing course and may well strive to continue his 40-year Senatorial career. Former Governor, US Ambassador to China, and presidential candidate Jon Huntsman (R) has also expressed interest in the Senate race.

Mr. Huntsman has said he will not challenge Sen. Hatch, and it is presumed that Mr. Romney would follow a similar course. Should the Senator decide to retire, this Republican nomination battle would very quickly become a campaign of national interest.

In Virginia, Rep. Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) announced that he will not challenge Sen. Tim Kaine (D) next year, and presumably would seek re-election to a third term in the House. Mr. Brat was viewed as a sure candidate in a special Senate election, which would have occurred had Sen. Kaine been elected Vice President.  Rep. Brat is apparently not willing to risk his House seat for what would be a long shot attempt in a regular election year.  

House

Fourth District Republican Committee delegates in former Kansas Rep. Mike Pompeo's (R-Wichita) House district gather tomorrow evening to choose a nominee for the April 11th special election. Mr. Pompeo was appointed and confirmed as CIA Director, prompting him to leave the House. Democrats will have their nominating convention on Saturday. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to hold the seat. 

Former US Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Wichita) and state Treasurer Ron Estes are the most prominent candidates among whom the Republican delegates must choose, but Wichita City Councilman Pete Meitzner and former Trump campaign official Alan Cobb are also credible contenders.

We can expect Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R) to quickly call the special election to replace Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell). It appears the latter man will win confirmation as Health & Human Services Secretary later this week. Already ten candidates have announced their intention to enter the special election. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) said she will announce her plans when Rep. Price formally resigns.

The California special election continues to move forward in Los Angeles. Veteran Rep. Xavier Becerra (D) resigned to become California Attorney General, accepting Gov. Jerry Brown's (D) appointment to replace Kamala Harris (D). The latter resigned the Attorney General's position when she was elected to the US Senate.

This week, state Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez won the official state Democratic Party endorsement, meaning he will be afforded party resources in the primary and his name will be annotated as the official Democratic candidate on the ballot. This is a major boost for Mr. Gomez, as he attempts to forge ahead of 22 other individuals who have already announced their candidacies. Democrats are a sure bet to hold this seat. The primary is April 4th followed by a special general election on June 6th.

Governor 

It looks like Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) doesn't have a free shot at his party's gubernatorial nomination.  Though Northam is locking up the key Democratic establishment support, former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) could be a legitimate contender.

A Christopher Newport University poll (1/15-28; 1,002 VA registered voters; 464 likely Democratic primary voters; 418 likely Republican primary voters) finds Northam leading Perriello by only a 26-15% split. Though a statewide official, Mr. Northam has very low name identification (only 23% said they knew enough about him to form an opinion) thus explaining his weak standing.

For the GOP, former Republican National Committee chairman and 2014 US Senate nominee Ed Gillespie breaks 30% primary support (33%), while his two opponents, state Sen. Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach) and Prince William County Board chairman Corey Stewart, don't even reach 10 percent

The Virginia Governor's race will be held this year. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) is ineligible to seek re-election. The Commonwealth is the only entity that still limits its Governors to one term in office.