US Election Primary Results Review & Forecast

June 13, 2016

This article originated on BIPAC.org. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis

President

Now that the primary process is complete, we can officially declare Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.

The battle wrapped up in six states, with Trump scoring an average of 74% of the vote in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.  Ms. Clinton lost the North Dakota Caucus to Sen. Bernie Sanders, along with the state of Montana.  Despite big wins in New Jersey, and an unexpected one in California, Ms. Clinton only averaged 55% of the vote, almost 20 points worse than Trump simultaneously scored among Republicans.

We now begin the pre-convention period, and it is here where we could possibly see further action from Sen. Sanders.  It is likely now, however, that he will end the campaign and come together with Ms. Clinton.  Her strong California performance shattered what one of his key arguments would have been for continuing: that she couldn't even win decisively in the bedrock Democratic states.

Senate

A surprise candidate entered the Alaska Republican primary.  Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan will now challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the August 16thRepublican primary.  Six years ago, Murkowski was denied re-nomination and forced to win re-election as a write-in Independent candidate.  The ex-Mayor is a more substantial opponent than local judge Joe Miller (R), who defeated her in 2010, so this could become a real race.  A wild card factor presents itself because Mr. Sullivan has the same name as the state's freshman US Senator...Dan Sullivan (R), which will create obvious voter confusion.

California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim) will advance to the general election on June 7th, thus shutting out Republicans from further competition.  Ms. Harris' 40% projected finish was better than expected.  Rep. Sanchez placed second from the field of 34 candidates, but with only 16% of the vote.

Another round of polling indicates the North Carolina race is again going to be close in November.  Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling surveys their home state every month and now finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) again holding a tepid 39-36% edge over former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D).  Democrats were originally not happy with their candidate recruitment performance here, but Ms. Ross appears to be a formidable contender.  The Libertarian candidate, Sean Haugh, receives eight percent in the latest PPP study.

House

Congressional primary elections were held in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, and South Dakota.  The most interesting race proved to be the Republican incumbent pairing between North Carolina Reps. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) and George Holding (R-Raleigh).  Both were cast into the same district as a by-product of the court-ordered redistricting procedure. 

The result proved a landslide for Rep. Holding, as he captured 53% of the vote as compared to Rep. Ellmers' 24%.  In fact, Ellmers barely edged Tea Party activist and former US Senate candidate Greg Brannon who registered 23% support.  Rep. Holding now becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), who had a close call in the 2014 Republican primary, crushed his two opponents on June 7th, including George W. Bush Administration official Taylor Griffin who returned for a re-match.  Mr. Jones registered 65% of the vote this week.  Griffin actually finished in third place.  Rep. Jones should be unimpeded in November for a twelfth term in office.

Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC), who had her Greensboro political base removed from the district in the court-ordered re-draw, still won a big victory in the new Charlotte-based district.  She scored 42% of the vote against a former state Senator, two sitting state Representatives, and three others.  The Congresswoman will head to an easy November victory.

In North Carolina's new open 13th District, agriculture businessman and gun range owner Ted Budd won the Republican nomination against 16 opponents.  He will face former Guilford County Commissioner Bruce Davis (D) in the general election.  The seat trends Republican.

All of the California incumbents seeking re-election advanced to the general election.  Rep. Mike Honda (D-San Jose) will again face fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, a former Obama Administration official, in the general election.  The two fought to a 52-48% Honda victory in 2014, in what proved to be a highly expensive race. 

Jimmy Panetta (D-Monterey), son of former US Defense Secretary, CIA Director, and local Congressman Leon Panetta (D), easily placed first in the primary qualifying election.  He will claim the open coastal district in November. 

Turning to Iowa, Rep. Steve King (R) easily defeated state Senate Assistant Majority Leader Rick Bertrand (65-35%).  King's former opponent, Iraq War veteran Jim Mowrer (D), has switched venues and won the 3rd District nomination.  He will now face freshman Rep. David Young (R-Van Meter/Des Moines) in the general election. 

The OH-8 special election, to fill the nation's lone congressional district, was also be filled Tuesday.  Businessman Warren Davidson (R) captured 77% of the vote and will immediately replace resigned House Speaker John Boehner (R).  Davidson will serve the balance of the current term and has already won the regular election nomination.  The House now returns to the 247R-188D partisan division that began the 114thCongress.

Governor

In the only gubernatorial action from the June 7th primary, Republican businessman Greg Gianforte, as expected, easily won the GOP primary with 76% of the vote.  He will now face Gov. Steve Bullock (D), as the latter campaigns for a second term. 

The Governor begins the general election cycle as a decided favorite.